Podcast
Why Lower Jobs Numbers Can Be Good News for Markets
Will Simpson and Greg Wise
July 4, 2026
A softer jobs report eased rate fears and helped broaden the rally beyond big tech.
Only four trading days this week with the holidays on both sides of the border, and while it felt a bit slower from a headline perspective, markets still managed to grind higher. The TSX finished up 0.8%, while U.S. markets were stronger in CAD terms with the S&P 500 up 1.7%, the Dow up 1.9%, and the Nasdaq up 2.0%.
Zooming out, the bigger story was the end of the first half of the year, and it was a rewarding one for multi-asset portfolios. Markets had plenty to worry about, from geopolitical conflict to policy uncertainty, another round of AI skepticism, inflation noise, and plenty of unsettling headlines. Despite all of that, most major asset classes finished the first half in strong positive territory.
The question now shifts to what the second half looks like after so much has already gone right. Optimism is understandable, given how many times markets have rewarded investors for staying calm, but the bar is clearly higher from here. That does not mean the rally has to end, but it does mean markets may have less room to be pleasantly surprised. Our view remains that we are late cycle, but that late-cycle period can still last a while.
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