Podcast
Tug-of-War
Will Simpson and Greg Wise
November 15, 2025
Bulls and bears have been fighting it out for the last few weeks.
The bulls and bears appear to be fighting it out, based on a sideways market over the past month with lots of big up and big down days. Whichever one wins will dictate whether this is a consolidation phase (bulls win), or a topping formation (bears win). This certainly makes us more comfortable with a bit of a defensive tilt as this year has been great so far for investors.
It was an up-and-down week to end in pretty much the same place we started. The TSX posted a solid gain, the S&P was basically flat in CAD, and the Nasdaq slipped a bit as some of the big tech names cooled off. International markets were mixed: Europe and EM were up while Japan lagged, and small-cap growth was the main outlier on the downside. Other than that, most major benchmarks finished close to where they began.
There’s a lot of debate right now about whether we’re in an ‘AI bubble’, and the truth is a bit more nuanced. The productivity gains are real, and the companies leading the charge seem to have the cash flow to fund it. But the sheer amount of capital going into data centres, chips, and infrastructure is massive, and the timeline for earning that money back isn’t clear, especially when the technology turns over so quickly. Add in the nonstop stream of “strategic partnerships” and big announcements, and it feels like expectations are running ahead of what’s actually being monetized today. It’s an exciting trend, no doubt, but also one that deserves a bit of healthy skepticism.
The record U.S. government shutdown finally ended this week, but now the narrative is that markets are bracing for a messy wave of delayed economic data to hit all at once. Fed speakers pushed back on the odds of a December rate cut, which added a bit of uncertainty right as tech was losing momentum. Overall, a noisy week that ultimately didn’t move the needle much.
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