Podcast
Trumponomics
Will Simpson and Greg Wise
May 16, 2025
The good, the bad and the ugly.
What a turnaround. Just a month and a half ago, markets were in one of the worst four-day stretches in decades, and now the S&P is back up 19% from the lows, gaining nearly 6% this week alone. The Nasdaq jumped 7.5% (CAD), with U.S. tech, discretionary, and small caps all ripping higher. Even Canada got in on the action, though more modestly, with the TSX up 2.5%. Canadian tech led the way with an 11% gain, while materials dragged hard, down nearly 6%.
The economic data isn’t screaming boom, but it’s been just solid enough. April inflation came in soft, with MoM headline and core CPI rising just 0.2%, pulling the YoY rate to a four-year low of 2.3%. Retail sales were flat, industrial production held steady, and housing starts nudged higher. For now, it looks like the early effects of the trade war are continuing to hit sentiment more than actual spending or pricing.
In Canada, Ottawa confirmed there won’t be a full federal budget until the fall. There has been a lot going on, and with Canada largely spared from the U.S. tariff barrage (aside from autos and metals), the impact here could hopefully stay relatively modest.
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