Podcast
Technology Booms and Commodity Cycles
Will Simpson and Greg Wise
May 16, 2026
What history can teach us about today’s market.
It was a bit of a mixed bag this week across markets, with North America ending up largely sideways after a softer Friday took some of the shine off. At the time of writing, the S&P still managed to finish up +0.7% in CAD, the Nasdaq added +0.6%, and the Dow was barely changed at +0.2%, while the TSX slipped -0.8%. Outside of North America, the weakness was more noticeable, with MSCI EAFE off -1.8%, and emerging markets pulling back -3.8%, with South Korea being a meaningful drag on the EM index after falling roughly -5% on the week. In Canada and the US, it was still a pretty selective tape within the sectors, with energy once again doing the heavy lifting on both sides of the border.
Bond markets, meanwhile, definitely stole some headlines this week. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is stepping in at an interesting time, with inflation concerns creeping back into the conversation and bond markets globally beginning to push back. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields jumped to 4.59% on Friday, up +21 bps on the week, while Canada moved to 3.69% (+18 bps), the U.K. climbed to 5.17% (+23 bps), and Japan pushed up to 2.70% (+22 bps). That’s a fairly broad global move, and when yields start moving together like that, equities usually start paying attention.
Stepping back, it certainly feels like we’re operating in a pretty classic late-cycle environment right now. Growth is still hanging in, earnings are holding up, AI spending remains a tailwind, but inflation, oil, fiscal deficits, and higher bond yields are all starting to demand a little more respect from markets. It does not mean the cycle is over by any stretch, but it does mean the easy part may be behind us.
As always, if you have any family or friends that we may be able to help, we are here as a resource. And if you have any questions, feel free to reach out anytime. We are here working for you.
We want you to be wealthy. We want you to feel wealthy.
We want you to Realize your Wealth™.
Best,