Podcast
Risk On, Risk Off
Will Simpson and Greg Wise
November 7, 2025.
Market sentiment has been shifting the last few weeks.
Equities slipped this week, and the story was mostly about the tech selloff. Canadian tech fell about 10%, U.S. tech dropped more than 4%, and that was enough to pull most major indices lower. The TSX was down 1.4%, the S&P fell 1.6%, and the Nasdaq dropped just over 3% (the worst week since April). Japan and U.S. small cap fell 2.5% to 3% in CAD as well.
Markets softened, and it naturally raises the question: is this the start of something bigger or just a pause after a relatively smooth stretch? The macro backdrop didn’t offer much clarity. With no payrolls report because of the shutdown, investors were left piecing together private data that pointed in different directions. Consumer sentiment dipped again, even as GDP estimates ticked higher. And in Canada, a surprisingly strong jobs print added a wrinkle for the BoC, likely keeping them cautious.
Most of the gains in a bull market tend to show up right at the beginning or near the end. The middle feels calm and orderly, but it doesn’t do much heavy lifting. The hard part, of course, is knowing which part you’re standing in today. This week’s wobble wasn’t dramatic, but it served as a reminder that calm markets are often the trickiest to interpret.
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