Podcast
Oil, Gold, and Playing Defence
Greg Wise and Roman Cannell
March 20, 2026.
Unpacking our process in uncertain times .
Another tough week, and it felt like more of the same. There were very few places to hide again; it was our turn to lead on the downside with the TSX falling over 4.0% on the week. The U.S. held up slightly better, down roughly 2–2.5%, while Europe slipped closer to 3%. Emerging markets were one of the few bright spots, helped along by currency moves and strength in energy. Bond yields continued to grind higher, particularly on the short end. In Canada, the 2-year government bond yield jumped about 25 bps versus just 5 bps on the 10-year. In the U.S., the 2-year rose 15 bps while the 10-year added another 10 bps. Gold was hit hard, down over 10%, adding to the pressure on the TSX given its heavy resource exposure.
What stood out most this week was the disconnect between relatively stable oil prices in North America and Brent pushing higher again (+9%). Brent Crude is now up more than 50% from pre-conflict levels, as ongoing attacks on energy infrastructure raised concerns about lasting supply damage. Markets are starting to lean into a more persistent inflation narrative, with U.S. 2-year breakeven moving up to around 3.3%, up from roughly 2.3% at the start of the year, which is essentially the market pricing in higher inflation over the next couple of years. Again, this will all be determined by how long the war lasts.
The S&P 500 is now on its fourth consecutive negative week, and while nothing feels particularly broken, markets have been grinding lower as sentiment shifts. It wouldn’t take much to see snapback. A tweet from Trump should do it; we have seen it before. At some point, these types of drawdowns tend to create opportunity, and we’re starting to get close to that. It’s always uncomfortable in the moment, but missing the turn can be just as painful as riding through the decline.
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