Podcast
New Market Reality
Will Simpson and Greg Wise
January 30th, 2026
Markets react to Trump’s Fed chair nomination.
Oof, a lot happened this week. After a strong run, Canada finally took it on the chin, down about -3.8% this week, making it one of the weaker major regions globally. By contrast, U.S. markets were far more resilient, with the S&P 500 roughly flat on the week and global equities holding up reasonably well. Europe and Japan slipped modestly in comparison to Canada, while EM was a rare bright spot. Net result, Canada has gone from one of the stronger markets this year to looking basically flat.
Commodities were the real headline, and not for the faint of heart. Gold ripped to fresh record highs above $5,500/oz before giving almost all of it back in a hurry, while silver was even more violent, down roughly -27% intraday on Friday after a big run up this year. Natural gas added its own chaos, and oil quietly climbed about 6% on renewed Iran tensions. For Canada, that reversal in precious metals mattered. Miners have been a huge driver of both index performance and earnings momentum, so the sharp pullback dragged the TSX lower and raised questions about how durable that earnings tailwind looks if metals stay under pressure.
The other big development was the growing likelihood that Kevin Warsh will be the next Fed Chair. Warsh has been critical of QE in the past and seems to tilt hawkish historically. For now, bond markets barely blinked and the dollar only bounced modestly, but it reinforces the idea that policy uncertainty is not going away anytime soon.
Trump’s tariff threats have been a persistent backdrop rather than a new development. Bloomberg Economics shows that since the November 2024 election, about 1 in 5 out of 49 tariff threats have been fully implemented and remain in place, which is not a non-event for markets. Canada has been a frequent focal point, with ongoing pressure and periodic flare ups tied to China trade rhetoric. With roughly 70% of Canadian exports still heading to the US, policymakers have been careful to cool the messaging and keep that relationship intact.
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