Podcast
Inflation
Will Simpson and Greg Wise
June 27, 2026
Why inflation is back in the conversation and how it could change the market playbook.
Markets moved pretty quickly this week, even though there was not much in the way of fresh news. The TSX was basically flat, but there was plenty going on beneath the surface, with strength in staples, technology, and industrials offset by weakness in materials and telecom. In the U.S., the Dow and Russell 2000 managed to finish higher, while the S&P 500 fell 1.7% and the Nasdaq was hit harder, down 4.4%. Outside North America, most major markets were also lower. Europe and Japan were softer, emerging markets saw a larger pullback, and global equities finished in the red. It was not a panic week, but it did feel like investors were taking some risk off the table.
The big macro relief valve was oil, which dropped another 10% and continued to move back toward pre-conflict levels. That helped ease some of the inflation concerns that had built up, but it did not make the inflation story disappear. Instead, attention shifted toward AI-related cost pressures, especially around memory chips and hardware pricing. Micron’s results showed that demand remains strong, while Apple’s price hikes reminded investors that the AI boom also comes with rising costs.
The interesting part is that oil kept falling despite renewed headlines around the Strait of Hormuz, including concerns about cargo ships and whether the ceasefire is really holding. Normally, that type of news would be enough to put a bid under crude, but for now the market seems tired of the back and forth.
Next week, attention turns to the U.S. jobs report, Canada GDP, and the USMCA review. With the loonie still hovering around the 70-cent level, the dollar is worth watching closely from here.
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