Podcast
Fog of War
Will Simpson and Roman Cannell
March 6, 2026.
Iran War, Trump and the Markets.
It was a rough week for equities globally, although the damage was far from uniform. International markets were hit the hardest, with Europe down about -8.8% and Japan falling -6.9%. North America held up somewhat better by comparison. The S&P 500 slipped -2.2%, the Nasdaq fell -1.4%, and the Dow dropped -3.3%, while the TSX declined -3.6%. In other words, it was clearly a risk-off week globally, but the real pressure showed up outside the U.S. and Canada, where growth expectations are more sensitive to energy shocks and geopolitical disruptions.
The catalyst for the shift in sentiment was the sharp escalation in the conflict with Iran, which pushed crude oil prices up more than 35% in a week, sending WTI above $90/barrel after closing around $67 last Friday. That kind of move quickly changes the macro conversation. Higher energy prices raise inflation risks, reduce the odds of central banks cutting rates anytime soon, and raise concerns about slowing growth if consumers start feeling the squeeze at the pump. Bond yields moved higher across the curve during the week as markets adjusted to that possibility. With all that said, this can all be over with one man’s words.
Friday’s U.S. jobs report added another wrinkle. Payrolls unexpectedly fell by about 92,000, which pushed the unemployment rate up slightly and raised fresh questions about the strength of the U.S. economy. That leaves the Fed in a tricky position: oil prices are pushing inflation risks higher, but the labour market data is pointing to softer growth. Markets are now trying to figure out which side of that equation will dominate in the months ahead, and until there is more clarity, volatility is likely to remain elevated.
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