Podcast
Energy, Inflation and Interest Rates
Will Simpson and Greg Wise
March 27, 2026.
Energy prices, inflation pressures, and interest rate expectations have all risen sharply, reshaping the market outlook.
It might not feel like it today, but markets this week were stronger over the last few days, in general. The TSX is looking to finish up about +1.8% for the week and most international markets holding in the +1–2% range, while the S&P (-0.7%) and Nasdaq (-1.9%) lagged in CAD terms. Obviously, the Nasdaq was a bit of an outlier and is now firmly in correction territory.
When you zoom in, the story was pretty clear: real assets and defensives carried the tape. Energy and materials were strong on both sides of the border, with U.S. energy up +7.6% and Canadian materials over +7%, while utilities quietly put in a solid week as well. On the flip side, tech and telcos struggled, especially in the U.S., and that pressure is what’s dragged the Nasdaq deeper into correction territory. You’re also seeing it in factors, small cap value meaningfully outperformed while large cap growth was down.
Macro-wise, not a ton has changed, but the tone is getting a bit heavier. Markets are still reacting to the ongoing Iran situation, and oil had an up and down week, looking to end where it started. Economically, growth is holding in okay, but inflation risks are creeping higher, which keeps central banks in a tough spot. The result is a market that can still grind higher in pockets, but feels a lot more fragile underneath than the headline numbers might suggest.
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