Podcast
Crude Awakening
Will Simpson and Greg Wise
April 2, 2026
How we’re managing risk and looking for opportunity amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
A better week in markets, even if it didn’t always feel like it. After several difficult weeks, we finally saw a relief rally with the TSX finishing up roughly +3.5%. U.S. markets also bounced, with the S&P 500 up about +3% and the Nasdaq closer to +4%, recovering some of the recent correction. Europe was generally positive as well, though it lagged North America.
From a macro perspective, three variables continue to drive markets right now: energy, inflation, and interest rates. The ongoing U.S.–Iran conflict remains a key short-term catalyst through its influence on oil prices and inflation expectations. Bond yields were volatile but largely unchanged during the week as markets balanced inflation risks against slowing growth expectations.
After four weak weeks, this rebound felt more like a reset in sentiment and positioning than a fundamental shift. Markets rarely move in straight lines, and even in corrective environments it is normal to see sharp counter-trend rallies.
The bigger picture remains a more fragile market environment where discipline, risk management, and selectivity matter more than broad market exposure. This is exactly the type of environment where active management and a disciplined process become most valuable.
Periods like this tend to create opportunity, but usually not all at once. Success is less about trying to call the exact bottom and more about staying patient, managing risk, and being ready to act when better opportunities present themselves.
As always, if you have any questions about your portfolio or know someone who could benefit from a second opinion, we are always happy to help.
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