Podcast
Connecting the Dots
Will Simpson and Greg Wise
October 10, 2026
How We’re Thinking About Markets in a Changing World
It was a bit of a mixed bag across markets this week, with North America holding up reasonably well while international markets struggled. The S&P 500 gained 1.3% in CAD, with the Nasdaq up 0.8%, while the TSX managed a modest 0.5% gain. Internationally, there was a pretty stark divide, with Europe down 1.5% and emerging markets falling 1.3%.
The big story continues to be the dramatic move higher in bond yields. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed as high as 5.36% this week, levels we haven’t seen in a very long time, before pulling back toward the end of the week. September’s 54 basis point increase alone was the largest monthly rise in four years. What’s interesting is that equities have largely held their ground despite the move, at least overall, but the weakness beneath the surface is becoming harder to ignore. Smaller companies and more rate-sensitive areas of the market are struggling, while investors continue to crowd into the largest technology names.
After spending much of the year cautious on bonds, we’re starting to come around to the opportunity. Yields are becoming increasingly attractive, and with a lot of bad news already being priced in, the balance between risk and potential return is looking more compelling.
Elsewhere, France remains a growing concern for global markets, with fiscal uncertainty and political instability pushing its borrowing costs higher. Higher energy prices and the enormous capital demands of the AI buildout are adding to the pressure on global bond markets, while the U.S. dollar continues to benefit from relatively higher yields and stronger capital flows.
Next week is a short one here in Canada, but we’ll start getting some earnings reports and another look at where things stand with U.S. inflation.
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