Podcast
Ceasefire
Will Simpson and Greg Wise
April 10, 2026
Relief Rally or Temporary Pause?
Markets closed the week with a clear shift back toward risk-on, as the temporary halt in conflict helped stabilize sentiment. Performance reflected that cleanly, with the TSX up 1.7%, S&P +3.0% and Nasdaq up 4.0% in North America. International markets were even stronger given the softer performance amidst the war. Most notably, Europe was up 5.1% and EM was up 6.5%, Japan chipped in as well, up 2.8%. Broadly, a pretty solid rebound across the board, with oil pulling back and inflation concerns easing. The move makes sense in the context of de-escalation, but whether it holds depends on the durability of the pause.
What continues to stand out is that when you step back, markets were fairly resilient through all of this. Even at the lows, most major markets never fully reached correction territory, and the bounce back has been quick. There were also some strange occurrences like Gold pulling back, a typical safe haven, but it did have quite a run into the conflict. Even if temporary, it does seem markets were never thinking this was going to be a prolonged disruption.
With geopolitics seemingly taking a back seat for now, the focus shifts back towards earnings season, which picks up meaningfully next week. A number of US financials are set to report, which should provide a good early read on how the economy is flowing. It’s a bit of a handoff, from macro-driven moves back toward company-level fundamentals, and whether earnings can support this recent bounce will be key.
As always, if you have any questions about your portfolio or know someone who could benefit from a second opinion, we are always happy to help.
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