Podcast
Best Case and Worst Case Scenario: Trump Tariffs and Trade War
Will Simpson and Greg Wise
March 7, 2025
How will tariffs impact the economy and the markets?
Another challenging week for North American markets, but another solid one internationally.
The TSX slid -2.5%, the S&P 500 dropped -3.5%, and the Nasdaq took the biggest hit, falling -3.9%, entering correction territory this week. Growth names struggled the most, with the Russell 2000 Growth Index down -4.6%. Meanwhile, Europe was up 4.0%, MSCI EAFE gained 2.5%, and Emerging Markets added 2.1%. Japan even managed a small gain. It’s safe to say, investors were looking outside North America for stability this week.
The biggest story? Wait for it…. Tariffs. A headline today put it best: “If you aren’t confused, you aren’t paying attention.” The noise has crushed sentiment, with most investors unsure how to position themselves, not even the Fed. Jerome Powell stated today that they “Don’t need to hurry and can wait for greater clarity” when it comes to future rate decisions.
The market hates uncertainty, and this week was a perfect example. Economic data was mixed, with job numbers coming in weaker than expected, but ISM surveys still above 50. But it all took a back seat to the volatility caused by shifting trade policies. Until we get some clarity, expect more chop ahead.
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