Podcast
The Real Economy Supercycle
Will Simpson and Greg Wise
September 5, 2026
Why a changing world is creating new opportunities in the real economy.
Markets were a little choppy this week, but not much really broke either way. The TSX finished basically flat, while the S&P 500 was down 0.4% and the Nasdaq slipped 0.2%. Europe was the weak spot, down 1.6%, while Japan gained 1.9% and emerging markets were up 1.5%. Under the surface, there was a bit more going on, with Canadian tech falling nearly 4%, while energy led in both Canada and the U.S. as oil moved higher.
The main debate in the U.S. is still whether the Fed needs to keep raising rates. August payrolls came in stronger than expected at 162,000, which keeps the door open to another hike. That makes next week’s inflation report the next big piece of the puzzle heading into the September meeting. Markets are leaning slightly toward another increase, although bond yields were fairly quiet this week despite all the back and forth.
Canada went the other direction on jobs, losing 41,000 positions in August. That cooled some of the rate-hike expectations that had built after the Bank of Canada took a tougher tone on inflation earlier in the week. The Bank still seems focused on inflation, particularly with energy prices pushing higher, but slower wage growth and ongoing trade uncertainty make the case for a series of additional hikes less clear.
This week also reinforced some of the broader themes we’ve been positioning around. We’ve been gradually putting more capital to work in areas like energy, industrials, power, infrastructure and defence, where we continue to see long-term structural investment forces at work. Those shifts are less about any one week in the market and more about where we think capital is likely to flow over the next several years as part of the Real Economy Supercycle.
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