Podcast
2026 Outlook: Discipline, Uncertainty, and Opportunity
Will Simpson and Greg Wise
January 11, 2026.
Staying disciplined in uncertainty is essential to managing risk and capitalizing on opportunity in 2026.
Markets picked up right where they left off after a strong 2025. It was a solid first full week of 2026 across the board, with equities broadly higher. The S&P 500 pushed to fresh highs, the Nasdaq and Dow both turned in strong weeks, and small caps led the way with the Russell 2000 up close to 6%. Canada held its own as well, with the TSX up just over 2%. Internationally, returns were anything but sleepy, with Japan jumping roughly 3.5% and Europe, EM, and MSCI World all finishing the week in positive territory.
As we all know, Venezuela dominated a lot of the macro headlines, especially around what a potential ramp up in oil production could mean for global supply. Oil prices actually firmed on the week, suggesting any meaningful production increase would be slow and costly.
Another theme that’s already creeping into conversations this year is just how hard it may be to separate from the pack. Read a handful of outlooks, and they all start to sound the same. More international exposure, a weaker U.S. dollar, add some emerging markets, underweight bonds, and move on. When everyone agrees on the playbook, finding truly differentiated sources of return can get a lot tougher. In that kind of environment, protecting what’s already been earned matters just as much as capitalizing on opportunities.
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